Medical network - on March 27, 10 years price 54 times, the company in the consumer to upgrade the dividend, is likely to usher in a new round of price increases.
▍ prices donkey-hide gelatin
Released recently, haitong securities research report pointed out that medicine is consumption upgrade good representative, one of the most characteristic, is the traditional Chinese medicine resources.
"In the past ten years, both the gelatin 10 years from 2005 to 2016, shows a gain of 20 times (factory price), there is also a piece of seed Huang 2 times or (factory price), followed by, is the company parent company profits from 05 120 million growth to 16, 1.844 billion in slice seed Huang parent company profits increased to 15 from 05 090 million m in 470 million." Research report pointed out.
In fact, recently, the company news from price rises again, 250 grams of retail prices could adjust to 1350 yuan, compared with 2016, latest prices rose by 36.44% in November, compared with a decade ago the price of 25 yuan, have increased from 54 times.
According to the securities times, one industry source said that the company intends to improve the marketing effect by price, the company President Mr. Qin has repeatedly said that the company is a national treasure of nourishing, on price standard should return to the 1920 s, 250 grams of 2500-3000 yuan. If according to the above, the price of the company still has to double space again.
To this, haitong securities also gives a positive judgment.
Haitong research report pointed out that in 2005 ~ 2016, the company of ex-factory price accumulated 19.5 times, especially from 2014 to 2016, the company factory price increases 139%, but at the same time, the data found in the 2014-2016 interval, gelatin piece basically stable sales of around 1100 tons, based on the current high prices, consumers reduced price sensitivity and stable.
"Tonic products maintain the stable growth of around 15% : 2013-16 years, nourishing products a compound growth rate of about 15%, and gelatin in nourishing product sales accounted for about 60%, is the largest category." Haitong securities analysis.
Cic, according to Chinese medicine yinpian industry 2014 years ago, more than 25% of the long-term growth, 2014 revenue growth dropped to 15.72%, to 2015 to maintain its growth by about 13%, is expected to stabilize the situation in 2016, Chinese medicine yinpian industry profit growth in the past more than 30% down to 8.36%, 14 years but 15 years industry profit growth rebounded to 22%, 8.36%, compared with 14 years have obvious speed.
Gelatin price considering the following factors: the donkey skin balance between price, competition, customer demand; And according to the company the parent company, its gross margins around 72%, is also the cost of donkey skin cap is about 28%. Based on the analysis of the gelatin piece from 2014 to 2016, the price sensitivity is reduced, gelatin piece quantity gradually stabilized. Glue mucilage as varieties of permeability continued ascension, glue mucilage so quantity and price.
▍ tonic new hot style
While a series of including slice seed Huang nourishing class well-known traditional Chinese medicine (TCM), is likely to become a new hot style after donkey-hide gelatin.
Haitong publicly, according to data from 2005 ~ 2016, slice seed Huang domestic ex-factory price up 1.7 times, export sales ex-factory price increases 2.3 times, compared the company moderate price strategy. According to our estimates, 2010-15 years Huang sales rose slightly (2014 transition by corruption, the company's management, foreign markets and weak influence, a drop in sales), sales are expected to 2.46 million in 2015. Based on the current high prices, consumers price sensitivity low and stable demand; At the same time, domestic replaced become the seed Huang major markets abroad.
Piece of wang Huang parent to seed Huang series products, all piece of wang Huang sales account for about 85%, as companies from 2005 to 2015 in domestic ex-factory price from 125 yuan to 340 yuan, the parent company's gross margin increased from 70.4% to 78.1%, the net interest rate from 32.8% to 52.7% (such as three rate decline also increase net interest rates), in product prices at the same time, the seed Huang will most of the profits retained in the body.
When other condition is constant, from 2005 to 2015, the factory price rise in the price per 1 piece of seed Huang domestic yuan, up 0.04% gross margin and the parent company net interest rate of 0.09%.
Piece of seed Huang back to raise orbit in 2016, the company adjust the price last public is on November 6, 2012, speculated that in 2015 the company may have begun to adjust the price, after many years, the company adjusted ex-factory price public again and terminal sales prices, combined with the current market environment, OTC varieties of traditional Chinese medicines is thought to be most likely to raise prices.
Haitong securities analysis predicts that seed Huang will enter so time quantity and price. Assumptions in the next five years piece son Huang domestic ex-factory price doubled to 700 yuan /, small five years sales growth, net interest rate stability, the parent company net profit of 1.4 billion yuan. Give the firm a 45 to 50 times the valuation, given that contribute most of the parent company net profit, namely in the next five years piece son Huang value space in 645 ~ 71.7 billion yuan. |
