Medical network on March 15 - ubs research thinks, medical care, drug prices system reform is the main melody of 2016-2017, it will lead to the pharmaceutical industry growth is slowing, long-term lower gross profit margins.
Because of government intensive reform policies, is known as the medical administration in 2016-2017 annual. Industry in the summary, the health policy focused on health care and the pricing system, both will have a far-reaching influence on the pharmaceutical industry.
On March 13, ubs for this topic research, the conclusion is, health control fee will result in the pharmaceutical industry growth is slowing; Price reform will lead to industry profit margins decline for a long time.
But it is a far-reaching influence at present has not yet appeared, in 2016, China's pharmaceutical industry revenue was 2.8 trillion yuan, up 9.7%; Profit is 300.2 billion yuan, up 13.9% from a year earlier.
"Is the starting point of the reform of structure adjustment, is not a big increase in investment before, but some people benefit and some neutral, others may be damaged." Medical industry analyst at ubs securities Zhao Bing said: "medicine won't just began to reform how 20-30 percentage growth each year, is now in decline stage."
Control cost to industry growth is slowing
Health insurance fee there began in 2010, since 2011, some areas such as Shanghai health care from source to throttle. Appeared in 2013, the medical insurance fund income growth is lower than spending growth situation, face surplus narrowed and even do not cover the "closed". To 2015, the medical insurance fund income and expenditure growth rate dropped to 15.55% and 15.55% respectively. At the same time, the bidding price, health insurance fee into the industry norm.
"Health charged fees will result in the pharmaceutical industry revenue growth." Zhao Bing explanation, since 2009, the main achievements of the reform is the government's spending, driven by the pharmaceutical industry growth, it has established a comprehensive coverage and affordable health care costs.
After the new contradiction lies in the decline in GDP growth, the pharmaceutical industry continues to put pressure, Zhao Bing argues that "in health care spending growth rate higher than that of financing growth situation, in order to maintain health insurance fund balance of payments, accused of fee will be in for a long time to become the core of health reform. At present, the pharmaceutical industry, health care reform is essentially controlled by structural adjustment of demand side medical expenses growth."
"2011-2011, the pharmaceutical industry revenue achieved 15% annual compound growth. But we expect that the next three years in the pharmaceutical industry's revenue growth will slow to 10%." Zhao Bing added.
In addition, the new medical insurance directory drugs increase the dividends of not cuhk, February 23 people club department issued by the national basic medical insurance, inductrial injury insurance and maternity insurance drug catalogue (2017 edition), 2535, western medicine, proprietary Chinese medicine contains drugs from 2009, 339 new version catalogue, rising by about 15%.
"But under the medicare payment price restriction, most varieties of won't appear after the 2009 version of the directory for soaring rare situation." Unicorn studio founder liu qian for the 21st century business herald reporters that "the new directory expansion implies the structure adjustment will continue to implement and control means, the biggest beneficiaries of the health insurance directory is rather than patients with drug companies."
Price reform to Maori long-term decline
On January 6, li bin, director of the national health development planning commission on family planning work conference, "" national health, said in 2017 to cancel all drug addition. Wang Hesheng, director of the reform of the state council office on March 11, the news conference emphasized that the policy again.
Wang Hesheng said: "this means that the public medical institutions in China will completely farewell 'medicine to cure time. Before the reform of public hospitals is through a service charge, medicine addition income and government subsidies of the three channels. After the reform, we will cancel the drug addition, became a service charge and government subsidies two channels."
The reform will directly affect the price of drugs, in addition, bidding and medical insurance payment system reform will also have a big impact on drug prices.
Ubs research analysis, hospitals and health care department will participate more in price formulation process; Paid price will replace the bidding price; There will be more adjustments before hospital procurement bidding price.
Decline in prices is to reduce the consequences of the gross profit margin on the pharmaceutical industry. Zhao Bing said, "drug prices is the purpose of the reform, forming a ensure drug prices affordable, and drug companies give attention to two or morethings incentive pricing system. The drug pricing more and presents the dual pricing system, namely the price paid by the tender and health-care mutual decision."
According to the report, the lowest common drugs in 2015, and 2016, which means that the nearly several rounds of bidding price presents the obvious downward trend. China's pharmaceutical industry to the first three five-year's gross margin was 35% (1999-2003), 31% (2004-2009) and 29% (2010-2015). Present the decline in gross margin, is mainly due to the labor and production costs rise, such as affected by drug prices down further, ubs expects, gross margin downward trend will be perpetuated in the next five years.
Recent buzz, fujian and other places of a health care payment settlement price, will have great influence on the original drug company home, "this is not necessarily a bad thing, many in China using the original medicine is out of date, only the expiration of the original drug will have this kind of concern and worry," Zhao Bing economy for the 21st century reporter said, "the price is too high for medical insurance funds utilization ratio is very large, usually in the field of major diseases such as diabetes, high blood pressure. But it is the home has a very good generic drugs listed, with what we need to the outdated original drugs for higher prices?" |
